Senate Battleground Focus Group Takeaways
Ahead of the midterm elections, National Security Action partnered with GBAO to conduct five focus groups in Senate battleground states, seeking to better understand how voters are thinking about foreign policy issues likely to feature on the campaign trail. All participants live in Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, or Texas. The groups were comprised of:
Group 1: Older (45 to 70) Democratic-leaning voters
Group 2: Younger (under 40) Democratic-leaning voters
Group 3: Pure Independent voters
Group 4: Swing Latino men
Group 5: Republican-leaning women who regret or are disappointed by their vote for Trump (“Trump regretters”)
Across these conversations, several themes emerged about how voters are thinking about America’s role in the world, the Trump Administration’s foreign policy, and the connection between global challenges and their concerns at home. We explore each of these key findings in greater detail below:
Americans view the war in Iran as responsible for growing costs
Corruption is front-of-mind
Americans are expressing a sour mood about America’s declining standing
Americans are expressing consistently negative views on Trump’s foreign policy
Americans are conflicted about the level of U.S. engagement abroad
Views on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict continue to shift
China remains a competitor – not an adversary
Concern about AI is growing
Americans support border control, yet mostly worry ICE is going too far
Building on insights from these focus groups, National Security Action will field in the coming weeks a national survey to better assess public opinion and test strategic messaging on key foreign policy and national security topics, which we will release in September in advance of the November midterm elections.
Americans view the war in Iran as responsible for growing costs
Summary: Economic pressures and cost of living were top of mind, with most participants unhappy about tariffs and the Iran War’s effect on prices. For many, the impact of tariffs and the war in Iran on prices were the clearest ways foreign policy has affected them personally. Participants could speak from experience about price increases and financial strain. “Everything is more expensive” was a common refrain in each group. The war’s impact on gas prices along with tariffs’ impact on daily goods were seen as unnecessary, self-inflicted burdens.
Many, including some disaffected Republican women, blamed Trump, with one questioning: “Why did we approve this? Everything is so expensive.” Participants also worried that his motivations were driven by arrogance rather than economic stability, as one wondered if tariffs were put in place “to say that we did something to somebody else, for Trump’s ego.”
NSA Messaging Takeaway
Always tie Trump’s war in Iran to the costly impact here at home. The American people are opposed to regime change, concerned about a long-term military commitment, and skeptical of Trump’s motivations – but more than anything, they are overwhelmingly opposed to how the war is impacting their wallets here at home. Any message that doesn’t tie Trump’s war directly to gas prices, inflation, and everyday costs is a missed opportunity.
Corruption Is Front-of-Mind
Summary: Corruption was discussed early and often in several groups reflecting a sense that corruption is getting worse, especially under this presidency. Corruption came up unaided, as many viewed Trump’s recent actions with alarm and despair. One Independent was especially frustrated that Trump and “his family and all of his cohorts are making money off this” while “people are suffering right now.” Others viewed Washington as broken with corruption rampant across the board, particularly with insider stock trading. While the corruption conversation included Trump, for many it was not just about Trump.
Trump regretter women were less concerned about Trump’s self-enrichment in and of itself, and more worried about what it said about Trump’s priorities. As one Trump regretter woman put it: “It would not bother me if we were all doing better.” Participants viewed this topic largely from a domestic perspective, with few connecting corruption to national security.
NSA Messaging Takeaways
Use Trump’s corruption to demonstrate how he’s lost touch with what matters most: the economy and Americans’ cost of living. Rather than fighting to lower costs or create good-paying jobs, Trump is spending the majority of his time self-dealing or working on costly legacy projects in Washington. An effective message doesn’t just identify Trump’s self-interest – it ties it to how Americans are being ripped off by Trump’s failures.
Criticizing Trump’s self-dealing isn’t enough – we need to change the system. It is not enough to simply criticize the president’s self-dealing – especially with voters who view corruption as a symptom of the brokenness of our broader political system. Instead, it is important for candidates to also make the case for broader changes and reforms that reduce the influence of money in politics, strengthen ethics rules, and restore public trust in government.
Americans Are Expressing a Sour Mood about America’s Declining Standing
Summary: Across the board, participants were nearly universally negative about the direction of the country, using words like “frustrated,” “exhausting,” “depressing,” “disheartened,” “nervous,” and “disappointed.” The economy and cost of living were dominant concerns in all groups, with many expressing concerns about the Iran War and its impact on prices, especially gas. Some Trump voters were disappointed that Trump broke his “no new wars” promise, with one Republican woman saying: “I feel like we can’t really trust the people that we vote for because they are blatantly doing things that they said they would never do.”
Participants offered up a variety of words that suggest the U.S.’s role in the world is declining—from “diminished” to “worsening” to “losing credibility.” Additionally, at least one person in every group called the U.S. a “laughingstock” or “a joke” on the world stage, with a lot of the blame placed on Trump.
NSA Messaging Takeaway
Tie Trump’s actions to America’s declining reputation and influence on the world stage. Voters aren’t necessarily looking for America to be more involved in every crisis or corner of the globe, but they do want the United States to be respected and effective when we engage to advance our own interests. Make clear that Trump’s failed leadership has diminished America’s influence, strained relationships with our allies, and left us weaker and less respected around the world.
Americans Are Expressing Consistently Negative Views on Trump’s Foreign Policy
Summary: Trump’s foreign policy was almost universally viewed negatively, and he was described as a bully. Almost no one had anything positive to say about Trump’s approach to foreign policy, with descriptors like “bully,” “selfish,” “clueless,” and “America’s king.” In previous years’ focus groups, some voters expressed grudging admiration for Trump’s ability to “get things done” and push other countries around, but this view was almost non-existent this time around.
Some in the Independent group also connected Trump’s approach to corruption, with one saying that Trump “takes everything he can for himself, his family, and his cronies,” while another believed “his only motivation” is “when it’s beneficial to him financially.” Some Republican-leaning voters expressed disappointment that Trump has not lived up to his promise to keep us out of wars. One Latino man lamented feeling stuck with the Iran War, saying: “We never should have started this and now that we did, we can’t get out.” Several regretful Trump-supporting women said Trump’s actions have not been what they expected, with one saying: “We were all lied to... and believed everything.”
NSA Messaging Takeaways
Highlight Trump’s broken promises. Trump promised to keep America out of new wars, reduce our footprint overseas, and clean up Washington. Instead, he has dragged America deeper into conflict and embraced the same corruption he promised to root out. For many voters, that is a betrayal of trust.
Remind voters about Trump’s ineffectiveness on the world stage, and how it has hurt Americans directly. Trump promised to end the war in Ukraine, bring peace to the Middle East, strike trade deals that benefit American workers, and more. But he has failed to deliver on all counts and his policies have made life more expensive for Americans. Don’t just attack Trump’s approach – hold him accountable for what he promised Americans and never produced.
Americans Are Conflicted about the Level of U.S. Engagement Abroad
Summary: Many respondents did not agree with being forced to choose whether the U.S. should engage internationally or focus at home, as they broadly recognized that global and domestic issues are intrinsically linked. While voters were not opposed to doing more to support our allies or help vulnerable people abroad, many also felt the U.S. should “clean up our own house” and address problems at home before looking abroad. That creates real tension for voters who want the U.S. to help others abroad, but feel constrained by rising costs at home that they increasingly associate with the Trump Administration’s foreign policy.
Participants agreed they want the U.S. to be more of a leader or example on the world stage, but definitions of that were vague. Some noted that the U.S. should be a “peacekeeper,” “help the little guy,” and be “helpful” on the world stage, but few had specific examples of what that looks like.
NSA Messaging Takeaway
Connect American leadership abroad to impacts at home. Voters want to know that American foreign policy is directly serving their interests, and failure to make that linkage diminishes its perceived importance. Focus on tangible issues – like initiatives to prevent pandemics, international cooperation to halt the flow of fentanyl, or diplomacy to prevent or end wars – that have reverberations at home. Explain how smart, responsible global engagement can make us safer, more prosperous, and more secure at home.
Views on the israeli-palestinian conflict Continue to Shift
Summary: Among Democrats, Israel was an animating issue, and younger respondents were more engaged and passionate. While nearly all of younger Democratic participants said they were following the issue closely, about half of older Democrats said they were thinking about the U.S. relationship with Israel. There are also differing opinions on what the U.S.-Israel relationship should look like. Most younger Democrats agreed the United States’ military support of Israel should be cut off, with one saying: “Just quit it cold turkey. We cut ties, we stop giving them weapons, stop giving them money. I’d go as far as stepping in to help the Palestinian people.” There was a similar generational variation on whether Israel and Gaza are a litmus test for these Democratic voters. Older Democrats were less likely to call the issue a dealbreaker when considering whether to support a candidate. For younger Democrats, the feelings were stronger, with some viewing a candidate’s stance as an indicator of their values and empathy.
Pure Independents shared a negative view of the U.S.-Israel relationship, but for different reasons. Several Independents called the U.S.-Israel bond “toxic,” largely through a more pragmatic lens of an imbalanced or exploitative relationship. One Independent said: “I feel like we provide a lot and we don’t get anything in exchange,” while another posited that “they’re just using us to fight their war.” Republican-leaning women who have soured on Trump seemed to avoid the topic altogether and would rather candidates largely do the same. When pressed, they shared a preference for the United States to “stay neutral” and provide only humanitarian assistance.
NSA Messaging Takeaway
Recognize the shift in voters’ views when talking about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Conventional responses about unconditional support for Israel or boilerplate answers about a two-state solution no longer resonate, and could even trigger strong opposition, especially with voters frustrated by Israel’s actions in Gaza and its role in the Iran war. Voters value empathy, honesty, and the consistent application of human rights, and are increasingly critical of candidates who come across as inconsistent, hypocritical, or deferential to special interests.
China Remains a Competitor – Not an Adversary
Summary: The U.S. relationship with China was not top of mind in these groups; it hardly came up unaided and several respondents said it was not top of mind when asked about it. When pressed, respondents largely viewed China as a competitor rather than an enemy, with some labeling China as a “necessary evil” due to the high volume of trade with the United States. Several younger Democrats also expressed concern that China has surpassed the United States technologically, with one saying: “They’re way more advanced than we are, and I feel like they really put us to shame.” These participants saw China’s progress in healthcare, technological innovation, and the auto industry as warning signs.
NSA Messaging Takeaway
Meet voters where they are. While policymakers often emphasize strategic rivalry and the potential for military conflict with China, most voters do not share that level of concern. Messaging should shift away from prioritizing an adversarial geopolitical relationship and focus instead on competing economically to ensure a level playing field, support American workers, and protect Americans from cybersecurity risks.
Concern about AI is Growing
Summary: Drilling down on AI specifically, most seemed unaware of an “AI race with China,” let alone worried about whether we were winning it. This sentiment crossed partisan lines. One Trump regretter woman said: “I actually didn’t know that was a thing”; an older Democrat stated: “I’m not sure it needs to be a race”; and a pure Independent remarked: “I don’t see that as a competition.” Most respondents were wary, however, about AI more broadly, and what the impact might be on the job market, our ability to know what’s real, and the environment due to data centers. Participants also want to see more regulation of the AI industry.
NSA Messaging Takeaway
Acknowledge concerns and uncertainty about the impact of AI. Voters’ concerns about AI are not driven by competition with China; they have real and growing concerns about the impact of AI on their everyday lives. It’s important to speak to Americans' worries about losing jobs, misinformation, and the lack of regulation – and to underscore that policymakers should prioritize Americans’ interests, not those of Big Tech.
Americans Support Border Control, Yet Mostly Worry ICE Is Going Too Far
Summary: Across groups, there was consensus that border control is necessary – with one younger Democrat saying: “I think our borders shouldn’t be open to just anybody” – and support for immigration enforcement against violent criminals. However, when the conversation turned to ICE, participants were highly critical, believing that ICE is overly violent, needs more training, and is targeting contributing members of society instead of violent criminals. The discussion was particularly nuanced with our pure Independents. Male Latino respondents – some of whom were supportive of Trump – had strongly negative reactions to ICE, unhappy that raids were happening “in broad daylight [in] public” and “where there’s children.”
NSA Messaging Takeaway
Focus on chaotic and dangerous ICE actions. Effective messengers can express support for secure borders, an orderly immigration system, and enforcement focused on dangerous criminals – while strongly opposing the Trump Administration’s reckless, indiscriminate, and inhumane immigration crackdown. Emphasize excessive force, chaos in American communities, and Trump’s broken promise to target the “worst of the worst.”
Published: August 2026