How to Seize on Trump’s Politically Perilous Campaign in Latin America

 

Our community faces a messaging challenge in opposing Trump’s military campaign in Latin America. Recent polling suggests that, despite the illegality and immorality of these strikes, many voters still support Trump’s actions to target drug traffickers in the Caribbean and Pacific. Further, polling has underscored that many Americans simply aren’t following this issue closely, and even those who are do not have strong or unified views on counterarguments they find persuasive.

But any march toward conflict in Venezuela would directly contradict Trump’s signature campaign promise to avoid “stupid wars,” as well as his self-styled image as a global “peacemaker” deserving of a Nobel Prize. In the coming weeks, as Trump pushes the country deeper into this reckless and ill-advised quagmire, there is an opportunity to make clear to voters that Trump is breaking his promises, risking American lives, and stumbling toward another unnecessary conflict that could quickly spiral out of control.

Background:

Over the weekend, The Washington Post published a stunning report detailing a “double-tap” strike on a suspected drug-trafficking boat after survivors were spotted in the water following an initial attack. Hegseth denied ordering the second strike and Trump claimed ignorance, but the White House later confirmed key elements of the story, attempting to shift responsibility onto career Pentagon officials.

Almost immediately after the story broke, Trump escalated tensions further by declaring that the airspace “above and surrounding Venezuela” was now “closed in its entirety,” warning commercial pilots and airlines to steer clear. He also cautioned that the U.S. may begin military operations inside Venezuela “very soon.” These moves come on top of a growing U.S. military buildup, including the deployment of the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group and the stationing of some 15,000 U.S. troops in the region.

Taken together, these developments mark a dangerous turning point. What began as a campaign against alleged drug-trafficking vessels is rapidly evolving into something far broader: a regime-change operation and potential U.S. invasion. Trump’s stated rationale is further undermined by his “full and complete” pardon of former Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernández, convicted by a U.S. jury of running a massive drug-trafficking conspiracy alongside cartel leaders like “El Chapo.”

Polling:

  • CBS: 70% of Americans would oppose the United States taking military action in Venezuela, according to a recent poll conducted by CBS News and YouGov. However, Americans favor using military force to attack boats suspected of bringing drugs into the U.S. by a narrow margin (53-47). 

    • Across party lines, large majorities (76%) say the administration needs to better explain its intentions in Latin America, and that it has not done so clearly yet. Only one in five Americans have heard a lot about the U.S. military buildup in the Caribbean.

    • Just 13% of Americans view Venezuela as a major threat to the U.S. Only 37% of voters believe military action in Venezuela would decrease the amount of drugs entering the United States.

  • YouGov: Americans are more likely to approve than to disapprove of the U.S. military attacking boats containing suspected drug smugglers in international waters (50% vs. 39%), a November Economist/YouGov poll found. 

    • However, a plurality of Americans oppose the use of military force to overthrow Maduro: 45% are opposed, while only 17% are in favor of doing so. 

    • Only 15% of Americans – including 5% of Democrats and 29% of Republicans – view the situation in Venezuela as a “national emergency” for the U.S. 

  • National Security Action: An October poll conducted by Data for Progress found that a slight majority of Americans (50-45) supported Trump’s strikes on alleged drug-trafficking boats near Venezuela. 

    • Support dropped notably when the strikes are framed as taking place inside Venezuela (−3 net) or inside Mexico (−4 net) – showing discomfort with escalation or violations of sovereignty.

A Smarter Approach:

Opponents’ responses to these strikes have largely focused on the illegality of Trump’s actions – which resonates with some voters. But legal arguments alone are not enough.

A stronger argument speaks to voters’ concerns about a slippery slope to broader conflict. In 2024, Donald Trump understood that the American people were frustrated by America’s involvement in seemingly open-ended conflicts with no clear purpose. He seems to have forgotten that lesson this year. If voters come to view the strikes not as isolated events but as part of a larger push toward confrontation or even regime change in Venezuela, support may erode – especially with Americans wary of further interventions overseas. Few voters view Venezuela as an urgent national security threat demanding a military response from the Oval Office.

The message is simple: Trump’s aggressive posture in Latin America is unpopular, ineffective, and risks pulling the United States into another open-ended conflict with no clear purpose. By emphasizing this, we can draw a sharp contrast: at a moment when Americans are struggling with real challenges at home, Trump is focused elsewhere – and likely making matters worse for the American people. 

Talking Points:

  • Trump’s strikes are reckless – the kind of reckless military campaign Trump campaigned against and condemned as a “stupid war.” His actions risk entangling the United States in a conflict with no clear objective, no legal authorization, and no exit strategy – one with very real costs in lives lost, resources drained, and years spent dealing with the fallout.

  • Trump’s campaign isn’t working. These airstrikes won’t meaningfully disrupt drug-trafficking – and Trump knows it. There’s no real strategy here, just spectacle. Bombing boats in the Caribbean doesn’t break up cartels or address the opioid crisis at home. We cannot bomb our way out of a public-health emergency. Real solutions require treatment, prevention, diplomacy, and cooperation with partners in the region.

  • This isn’t really about fighting drug traffickers. Trump’s purported desire to target drug traffickers is hard to take seriously when, just this week, he issued a “full and complete” pardon to the former Honduran president convicted by a U.S. jury of running a complex and violent drug-trafficking conspiracy – working directly with cartel leaders like El Chapo. If Trump were serious about fighting traffickers, he wouldn’t be letting convicted ones walk free.

  • Donald Trump must step back from the brink, level with the American public, and pursue a legitimate, evidence-based strategy to confront the drug epidemic. What the country needs is smart policy rooted in facts – not attention-seeking escalation or back-door regime change.

Published: December 2025