The American people are clear that they want an approach to the U.S.-China relationship that balances protecting the country from potential threats like espionage and the spread of fentanyl, but at the same time, one that avoids direct confrontation and can reduce tensions and avoid conflict.
In responding to these challenges, voters overwhelmingly agree that the U.S. approach towards China should be smart, firm, and diplomatic. America’s relationship with China is one of the most consequential in the world. Voters and policy experts are both aligned that clear-eyed diplomacy is required to secure our interests and decrease the likelihood that misunderstandings lead to crises.
Key Messages
While U.S.-China relations were severely strained at the beginning of 2023, Biden successfully reopened communication between the two countries’ militaries. His achievement took months of diplomatic engagement at the highest levels of government. Ahead of the November meeting, “both sides agreed to reestablish military-to-military channels to bolster transparency and avoid potentially dangerous miscalculations.”
In contrast, Trump’s trade war escalated tensions and harmed the U.S. economy. Trump’s obsession with appearing tough led to a disastrous trade war between the U.S. and China, which spilled over into other disputes between the two countries.
Trump’s ineffective diplomacy led to the most hostile period of U.S.-China relations in decades. When Trump’s personal dealmaking failed with China, he turned instead to hostile rhetoric, and the bilateral relationship quickly eroded in dangerous ways, heightening the risks of conflict.
Trump’s isolationism damaged U.S. alliances in the Indo-Pacific. Trump believes that alliances are a form of geopolitical welfare. He retreated from the world and damaged our alliances, undermining a major source of U.S. strength. During his presidency, Trump seriously damaged the relationship between the U.S. and two important allies in the region: South Korea and Japan.
Diplomacy Is A Fundamental Foreign Policy Tool
Diplomacy is a vital element of managing the world’s most important relationships. Diplomacy is not a give-away, but an essential tool to tackle the hardest issues we face.
Only after the dire Cuban missile crisis did the U.S. and Soviet Union formalize agreements to scale back the dangers of nuclear weapons. With China, we must maintain direct communication channels and strong guardrails before reaching the brink of another serious crisis.
Engaging and deterring the Chinese government is not an either-or approach. In fact, effective deterrence often requires direct communication about potential costs and repercussions in order to avoid misinterpretations or missteps.
APPENDIX
U.S.-China Diplomacy During the First Trump Administration
Former Secretary of State Rex Tillerson visited Beijing in March 2017 and described the U.S.-China relationship as one “built on nonconfrontation, no conflict, mutual respect, and always searching for win-win solutions.”
Trump hosted Xi Jinping in April 2017 at Mar-a-Lago and touted “tremendous progress,” a deeper understanding, and more trust-building.
Former Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross described the relationship as “hitting a new high” in May 2017 after unveiling an agreement to expand trade of beef, poultry, electronic payments, and more.
Published: September 2023
Updated: November 2024