MESSAGING MEMO: Tying Trump’s Tariffs to Voters’ Negative Feelings about the Economy
Executive Summary: The economy remains voters’ top concern heading into the midterms. Prices – especially groceries, housing, and utilities – remain stubbornly high. Americans feel squeezed, and they are looking for accountability. Donald Trump promised to “end inflation on day one.” Instead, he doubled down on sweeping tariffs that have raised costs, slowed hiring, disrupted supply chains, and injected instability into the economy.
The political opportunity for Democrats is clear: voters already associate Trump with tariffs and already believe tariffs are raising prices. The task at hand is to consistently and clearly link rising costs and economic uncertainty to Trump’s agenda. Trump once claimed the economy as his greatest strength. Today, with help, it can be his most significant political vulnerability.
Background: On the campaign trail, Donald Trump centered his economic message on sweeping new tariffs, which he claimed would revive U.S. manufacturing, reduce trade deficits, and pressure foreign governments to change their behavior. He pledged to impose a universal baseline tariff on all imports, with significantly higher taxes on goods from China, and repeatedly claimed that foreign countries would bear the cost rather than American consumers.
Once in office, Trump followed through by imposing sweeping new tariffs on nearly all imported goods, including from key allies like Canada, Mexico, and the European Union. His administration also raised duties on major categories such as automobiles, steel, lumber, and aluminum. The result has been a sweeping expansion of import taxes affecting the vast majority of goods coming into the United States – making tariffs the central pillar of his second-term economic agenda.
Polling: The American people are hearing a lot about Trump’s tariffs, and associate them with his economic approach – which they view unfavorably. They believe that tariffs are responsible for price increases, and are feeling the effects of Trump’s failed economy. Most Americans feel that Trump has lost focus on the issue that matters most: the economy.
Americans are feeling the pain.
Seven in ten Americans say they are spending more on groceries than in 2024, and six in ten report higher utility costs.
Just 31% of Americans give the economy a positive rating, and only 4% would describe the economy as “excellent.”
Tariffs are to blame.
73% of respondents say Trump’s tariffs have raised prices they pay.
65% of Americans disapprove of Trump’s handling of tariffs.
55% of Americans say that Trump’s policies have worsened economic conditions in the country.
Trump has lost focus on the economy.
74% of Americans believe that the Trump Administration is not focused enough on lowering prices.
While 63% of Americans prioritize inflation and the cost of living, only 25% see it as a top focus of Republicans.
The Facts: Trump promised his tariffs would lower costs, revive American manufacturing, pay down the national debt, and strengthen the economy. Instead, they have slowed growth, stalled hiring, raised prices, and injected uncertainty into nearly every sector. We know that Trump's promises have fallen short – and that it's the American people who are paying the price. Here’s the proof:
Higher Prices
Trump’s tariffs amount to the largest tax increase on American families since 1993.
Households are paying an additional $1,200 per year – and that number is projected to rise to $2,100 in 2026.
During Trump’s first year, the tariff rate on U.S. imports increased from 2.6 to 13 percent.
In 2026, Trump’s tariffs are expected to increase prices across every major product category:
Pharmaceuticals & medical products: up to 4.5%
Household supplies: 3%
Food: 2.5%
Slowing Growth and Job Losses
The U.S. added just 181,000 jobs in 2025, compared to nearly 1.5 million in 2024 — one of the weakest years for job growth in decades.
Corporate bankruptcies surged in 2025 to their highest level since the Great Recession.
Economists warn continued tariff escalation could push inflation as high as 4% in 2026.
Small Businesses Are Hardest Hit
American small business bills tripled due to Trump’s tariffs in 2025.
Small businesses – which account for 97% of U.S. importers – are projected to pay an additional $200 billion.
Compliance and regulatory costs add another $265 million to $1.3 billion.
Manufacturing Has Collapsed
Manufacturing employment has declined every month since Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement, losing at least 72,000 jobs in less than a year.
Manufacturing employment now sits below post-pandemic levels.
Manufacturing activity has contracted for ten consecutive months.
Trump Lied
Foreign exporters have absorbed just 4% of tariff costs, leaving Americans to pay the remaining 96%.
U.S. imports grew in 2025, and the trade deficit in goods hit a record high.
In 2025 alone, the United States added $1.7 trillion to the national deficit despite Trump saying tariffs would reverse the trend. Experts expect the national debt to balloon to $64 trillion over the next ten years.
While families face higher costs, well-connected special interests in Washington are reaping the benefits. Trade-related lobbying increased by nearly 30% since the tariffs took effect.
What to do:
Trump once claimed economic strength as his greatest asset. Now, it’s his greatest political liability. It’s our job to remind the American people of that fact at every opportunity.
The opening already exists. Voters know prices are high. They know Trump owns tariffs. They already believe tariffs are raising costs. Our job is simple: connect the dots every time.
Tie rising prices directly to Trump’s tariffs.
Repeat that tariffs are a tax Americans pay.
Keep the focus on groceries, housing, utilities, and everyday costs.
When Trump changes the subject to immigration, culture fights, or the latest controversy, bring it back to prices.
Do not debate trade theory. Do not argue about long-term strategy. Stay on what voters feel: higher bills and economic uncertainty.
Talking Points:
Trump Promised Lower Prices. Prices Went Up.
Donald Trump said he would end inflation on day one. Instead, he raised taxes on nearly everything Americans buy. Families are paying more, not less.
Tariffs Are a Tax on Americans.
Trump’s tariffs are not paid by China. They are paid by American businesses and American families. When tariffs go up, prices go up. It is that simple.
Families Feel It Every Day.
Groceries cost more. Utilities cost more. Cars and home repairs cost more. This is not abstract. The American people are feeling the pain of Trump’s tariffs.
Small Businesses Are Paying the Price.
Some major corporations can afford to navigate Trump’s tariffs. But small businesses cannot absorb these costs. They either raise prices, freeze hiring, or cut jobs. That hurts local communities first.
Chaos Creates Higher Costs.
Trump’s on-again, off-again tariff threats create instability. Businesses do not invest when the rules keep changing. That uncertainty slows hiring and drives up prices.
Published: February 2026