Outstanding Questions on U.S. Involvement in Iran
Earlier this week, Donald Trump took to Truth Social to announce a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. Yet, just hours after the ceasefire was meant to take effect, both nations were still attacking one another, threatening to reignite a conflict that Trump himself escalated by bombing Iranian nuclear facilities and issuing threats of regime change.
The situation remains fluid, and many questions remain that need to be addressed, including:
Will the ceasefire hold? The ceasefire is a welcome development, helping to contain a conflict that risked spiraling out of control. However, serious doubts remain about Donald Trump’s ability to keep the peace. He does not have a strong track record of orchestrating or maintaining successful ceasefires. After inheriting a ceasefire in Gaza, fighting resumed between Israel and Hamas, the hostages have not been returned, and no peace deal is in sight. And earlier this year, a highly-touted partial ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine brokered by Trump broke down after just an hour.
What, if anything, did Trump’s decision to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities accomplish? U.S. military strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities “did not destroy the core components of the country’s nuclear program and likely only set it back by months,” according to an assessment by the Defense Intelligence Agency. The Trump Administration previously conceded that they don’t know the fate of Iran’s uranium stockpile – which was likely hidden throughout the country to protect it from destruction. There is also evidence that Iran removed vital equipment from nuclear sites prior to the bombings, likely saving those materials from being destroyed. Ultimately, Iran’s nuclear program may have been damaged or delayed – but it was certainly not destroyed.
Did the Trump Administration ignore or manipulate intelligence to justify taking military action? Trump has said his director of national intelligence was “wrong” when she testified that Iran was not building a nuclear weapon. But reports suggest that Trump’s decision to strike Iran was not driven by any new U.S. intelligence on Iran’s nuclear program. The American people have previously been dragged into war in the Middle East based on faulty intelligence. They deserve to know whether Trump’s decision to attack Iran and risk the lives of U.S. service members was guided by real intelligence, or personal, political calculations. Will Trump make public the intelligence information that proves Iran was taking steps to weaponize its nuclear program? Does it even exist?
Did Trump make a nuclear Iran more likely? Donald Trump says that Iran will now return to the negotiating table and abandon its nuclear program, but that is far from certain. Before Trump bombed Iran, U.S. intelligence assessed that Iran had no imminent plans to build a nuclear weapon. But they also determined that would likely change if the United States entered the war. “The sad truth here is that by striking Iran, the U.S. has made it much more likely that Iran will want to obtain nuclear weapons.” It remains unclear whether Iran will now abandon diplomacy and accelerate its pursuit of a nuclear weapon, or attempt to reconstitute its program in secret. Which path will Iran choose?
What’s next? Does Trump have a plan to deliver a permanent solution? Trump’s decision to attack Iran’s nuclear program represents an enormous gamble that his predecessors avoided because they knew that diplomacy – not war – was the only way to permanently prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. Now that Trump has crossed that bridge, does he have a plan to deliver a permanent, peaceful solution to this crisis? His track record doesn’t inspire confidence. Trump previously tore up a deal that successfully restrained Iran’s nuclear program and abandoned diplomatic efforts after just sixty days. Should the American people have any faith that this administration can handle diplomacy of this scale and importance?
Published: June 2025