The Drums of War – Trump Is Gearing Up for Regime Change in Cuba

 


Just a few months after launching a reckless and unnecessary war with Iran that is rattling the global economy and driving up costs at home, Donald Trump appears to be creating a pretext for yet another regime change operation – this time in Cuba. Americans have seen this movie before with Iraq and, more recently, with Venezuela and Iran. Now, many of the same warning signs are appearing again: anonymous leaks and ominous warnings in the media, harsh sanctions and a headline-grabbing criminal indictment, a military show of force, and increasingly explicit threats from senior administration officials.

The only question now is whether anyone in Washington can stop Trump from dragging the United States into yet another dangerous foreign military intervention while more and more Americans struggle at home. 

Here are five signs that Trump is gearing up for regime change in Cuba. 

Leaked Reports About an Imminent Threat 

  • Last week, Axios published a report claiming that Cuba had acquired more than 300 military drones and was discussing plans to use them to attack U.S. territory. According to unnamed sources cited in the report, Cuba could be preparing to preemptively strike the United States – a striking, unsubstantiated allegation about a country Trump himself has repeatedly suggested is on the brink of collapse. Despite these sensational claims, the report ultimately acknowledges that “U.S. officials don’t believe Cuba is an imminent threat, or actively planning to attack American interests.” 

  • These curated leaks are eerily reminiscent of how the George W. Bush Administration used intelligence reports about Saddam Hussein’s weapons programs to build public support for invading Iraq. Those allegations ultimately proved false, but they played a central role in justifying a costly war that destabilized the Middle East for decades. Similarly, the Trump administration made a series of shifting and false claims about Iran before launching its ongoing war earlier this year.

A DOJ-Led Pressure Campaign

  • This week, the Department of Justice (DOJ) unsealed an indictment of Cuba’s 94-year-old former leader, Raúl Castro, for his alleged role in downing two planes more than three decades ago. 

  • The Trump Administration employed a similar strategy against Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, who was initially indicted in 2020 on narco-terrorism and cocaine-trafficking charges. Last year, Attorney General Pam Bondi offered a $50 million reward for information leading to his arrest, and the Trump administration unsealed further indictments immediately following his capture and removal to the United States. 

A Military Show of Force and Surge in Surveillance 

  • The Trump Administration is positioning naval and military assets near Cuba in an apparent show of force, and has increased surveillance flights around Cuba in recent weeks. According to unnamed Trump Administration officials, the flights are intended to send a message to the Cubans: we’re watching you. 

  • Similar patterns emerged before U.S. operations in Venezuela and Iran, where a military buildup and surveillance flights intensified in the lead-up to U.S. operations. 

Severe Economic Pressure 

  • Trump has repeatedly expanded U.S. sanctions targeting the Cuban government and officials as part of a broader effort to increase pressure on Havana. These sanctions follow a monthslong blockade that has severely restricted the island’s energy supplies and brought the country’s grid to the brink of collapse. While the pressure campaign is intended to pressure the Cuban government, it is ordinary civilians who are feeling the pain from this effort. 

  • Before launching conflicts in Iran and Venezuela, Trump relied heavily on economic coercion to increase pressure on each country’s leaders. 

    • In February of 2025, Trump formally restored his “maximum pressure” policy against Iran. In the months that followed, the Trump Administration deployed widespread and devastating sanctions. 

    • During Trump’s first term, the U.S. launched an oil embargo on Venezuela and froze all Venezuelan government assets in the U.S. At the beginning of his second term, Trump froze all licenses allowing oil and gas companies to operate in Venezuela. 

A Final Warning and Faux Diplomacy

  • Earlier this month, CIA Director John Ratcliffe traveled to Cuba to deliver a stark warning to the Castro government. In a statement, the CIA said that Ratcliffe personally delivered a message from Trump that the United States would be willing to negotiate “only if Cuba makes fundamental changes.” 

  • Trump’s “final warning” follows a familiar pattern. Trump has repeatedly engaged in pressure campaigns that culminate in a purported final diplomatic offer before launching military attacks. 

    • Last summer, the president threatened the Iranians to “make a deal” just days before launching a major military attack on its nuclear facilities. 

    • Months later, in November, Trump spoke on the phone with Nicolás Maduro – offering the president one final chance to negotiate his surrender before later launching a military operation to capture him. 

    • In February, the Trump Administration engaged in diplomatic negotiations in the days leading up to his reckless war with Iran. 

Talking Points:

  • The United States cannot afford another regime change operation that wastes taxpayer dollars, fuels instability, and risks putting American troops in harm’s way. Regime change in Cuba does nothing to help Americans or make life more affordable here at home.

  • Americans are still dealing with the fallout from Trump’s ongoing reckless war in Iran, which will soon enter its fourth month. Now, he’s laying the groundwork for another one – this time less than 100 miles from U.S. shores.

  • Americans have seen this playbook before. Washington promised that the wars in Iraq and Iran would be quick and easy, and Americans are still paying the price.

  • Americans want leaders focused on lowering costs, strengthening the economy, and improving life at home – not a president rushing the country toward his third foreign conflict in five months.

Published: May 2026