Donald Trump’s Costly “Liberation Day” Gambit

 

Background:

Revelations about the Trump Administration’s “SignalGate” continue to dominate the news cycle this week – and with good reason! But almost on cue, we have another chaotic development in Donald Trump’s Washington looming on the horizon…

Despite running for office on a pledge to lower costs for working families, Donald Trump is preparing to implement one of the most chaotic and dangerous economic policies in recent memory – a plan that will increase prices and tank the American economy for years to come. On April 2nd, Donald Trump is declaring “Liberation Day,” and implementing “reciprocal” tariffs on our largest trading partners, which could impact as much as 90% of American imports.

Below, please find relevant polling information, messaging guidance, and additional research to help the American people understand the dangers of Donald Trump’s disastrous trade policies. 

The Latest Polling on Trump’s Tariffs: 

**Read the full report from our friends at Navigator Research here**

Most Americans view tariffs unfavorably, and Trump’s use of tariffs dominates the negative news people are hearing about him. Nearly four in five Americans have been hearing “a lot” or “some” about tariffs lately, a 25-point increase since January. 

Majorities believe new tariffs will increase costs and hurt American consumers. Two in three Americans believe new tariffs will drive up the cost of things they buy. This includes majorities across partisanship. 

  • Americans believe the most concerning potential impacts of Trump’s tariff plan are that it will cost middle class families more (31 percent), that it will start a trade war with foreign countries (31 percent), and that foreign countries will retaliate with tariffs on American manufacturing (27 percent).


Talking Points:

  • Donald Trump promised to lower prices for American families, but he’s doing the exact opposite. His reckless tariff scheme is a ticking time bomb for the economy – driving up inflation, slowing growth, and punishing working Americans.

  • There’s a smart way to use tariffs, and then there’s Trump’s way: reckless, chaotic, and guaranteed to backfire. His plan is economic sabotage disguised as tough talk.

  • Trump’s tariffs would hit nearly 90% of U.S. trade. And guess who pays the price? Americans already stretched thin will feel the pain every time they buy groceries, fill up their gas tank, or try to pay rent. Trump is raising prices on purpose.

  • One in four companies has already slashed 2025 hiring plans because of Trump’s tariffs, and under his watch, U.S. GDP has taken a nosedive.

  • Trump is hiking costs for working families to fund tax breaks for billionaires. Everyday Americans will pay more while his rich friends get richer.

  • Americans didn’t elect Trump to launch an economic war on his own people. We deserve better.

Additional Research:

Economic Growth Slowing and Prices Rising due to Trump’s Chaos

  • Since Trump took office, the risk of a global recession has risen to 40%. (JP Morgan Research)

  • Estimated GDP growth in 2025 has already fallen by 0.3% (nearly $2B) in the just 2 months since Trump took office. (JP Morgan Research)

  • If Trump makes good on his promise to raise U.S. tariffs by 10%, experts predict it would cause a ~$300 billion loss to U.S. production.

  • If Trump’s tariffs are fully implemented, they could push inflation up to 4% – nearly as high as during the pandemic. 

Job Losses Likely due to Trump’s Leadership

  • During Trump’s first term, “for every job created by the U.S. tariffs on steel, 80 jobs were lost in manufacturing firms further down the supply chain.” (The Hill)

  • One in four American businesses have said that they are cutting their 2025 hiring plans because of the rising tariffs. (Richmond Fed / Duke University Survey)

Business Confidence Plunges Under Trump

  • In February, measures of business confidence dropped to the lowest they’ve been in two years; home sales fell significantly. (JP Morgan Research)

  • American businesses list tariffs as their top concern, and optimism among CFOs has plummeted since Trump took office. CFOs now expect growth to decrease in 2025. (Richmond Federal Reserve)

Published: March 2025