What We’ve Lost: The Consequences of Trump’s Decision to Pull out of the JCPOA
Last week, Israel launched a series of strikes on Iran, targeting its nuclear program as well as its military leaders. The attack jeopardizes ongoing efforts to reach a peaceful resolution on Iran’s nuclear program – and risks dragging the United States into a potentially catastrophic regional conflict.
Let’s not forget how we got here. In 2018, Donald Trump tore up a nuclear agreement that, according to his own intelligence community, was working. He did so because he wanted to dismantle the signature foreign policy achievement of his predecessor, Barack Obama, and he believed he was uniquely capable of negotiating a “better deal.”
Trump routinely called the JCPOA “one of the worst and most one-sided transactions the United States has ever entered into.” Trump argued that the deal failed to protect America’s national security interests, enabled the Iranian regime’s malign activities, and failed to prevent Iranian nuclear research and development. But in reality, Trump’s decision to pull out of the deal greatly exacerbated all of those challenges. And bombing Iran is uncertain to permanently resolve any of these problems – while creating many more.
Since Donald Trump pulled out of the JCPOA, Iran has:
Increased enrichment: Iran has progressively increased its uranium enrichment levels beyond the 3.67% limit set by the JCPOA, reaching levels as high as 60% – well above the level used for civilian purposes and close to weapons grade.
Expanded nuclear stockpiles: Iran now possesses over 400kg of uranium enriched to 60%. It is enough for about 10 nuclear weapons if further refined, making Iran the only non-nuclear-armed state producing uranium at this level. Under the JCPOA, Iran was only permitted to possess a small amount of low-enriched uranium – which was not enough to produce even a single nuclear weapon.
Blocked inspections: Under the JCPOA, Iran allowed the IAEA regular access to all declared nuclear sites, including continuous surveillance with cameras and electronic seals. Iran also was required to give access to undeclared sites if there were concerns about covert nuclear activity. Since Trump left the deal, Iran restricted the IAEA’s ability to inspect its nuclear facilities, significantly curtailing the international community’s ability to monitor the program and have advanced warning if Iran attempts to produce a nuclear weapon.
Reduced nuclear weapon breakout time: Iran’s breakout time – the amount of time needed to produce enough weapons grade material for a nuclear weapon – is now probably only one or two weeks. Under the JCPOA, Iran’s breakout time was at least a year.
Grown closer to America’s adversaries: Iran has significantly deepened its strategic partnerships with both Russia and China in recent years. Iran has become a key supplier of military equipment and munitions for Russia’s war in Ukraine, while both countries have greatly increased their consumption of Iranian oil exports – despite heavy Western sanctions.
Israel justified their attack this week by suggesting that Iran had greatly stepped up its nuclear enrichment, and was just days away from developing a nuclear bomb. But if Donald Trump had not abandoned the JCPOA – for purely political reasons – neither of those things would have been true. Under the JCPOA, Iran’s program was severely limited and closely watched.
We are on the precipice of a disastrous regional war that will likely only succeed in temporarily setting back Iran’s nuclear program. And we’re in this situation because of one man’s pride and ego: Donald Trump.
Published: June 2025